Good morning everyone, I am Shiao Wing Yan from 4D. Have you ever wondered the probability of two people being born on the same day within a crowd? When there are 40 people, it is as high as 0.9. I am astonished as I guessed the probability is high only when there are hundreds of people.

This intriguing question is mentioned in the book 《概率萬花筒》 ,which introduces theories about probabilities. There are eight different chapters in the book, and each explains basic concepts of probability and expected value as well as their applications in our daily lives.

The content is closely related to the our lives so that you will not find it difficult to read. Some frequently asked questions are explained in great detail. For instance, ‘What’s the probability of a crackup?’ or ‘ Is there any difference between being the first one and the last one to take part in a lucky draw? ‘

A fascinating question is asked in the part of discussing the probability of a crackup – If the engine in the middle or the engines at the two sides are not out of order at the same time in a plane with three engines, accidents will not occur. For a plane with four engines, there will be no accidents if one engine at each side is still working. Here comes the question: Which plane is safer, the three-engine one or the four- engine one? When I first read the question, I was confused by the complicated description of these two planes. Nevertheless, if you follow the logic mentioned in the book, you can tackle the problem with less difficulty. The calculation shows that a three-engine plane will be safer. This is really out of my expectation.

Perhaps someone may have a perception that there are not many applications of probability. But this is not the truth. Applying the ‘Law of large numbers’, we can easily know the number of fish in a lake and the number of people with a certain amount of salary.

I have really learnt a lot from this book. It arouses my interest in mathematics and widens my horizon on various applications of probability. Having utilized a wide variety of examples to illustrate difficult mathematical concepts, it is simply a must-read book for those who have keen interests in Mathematics. This is the end of my book sharing, thank you.